G. Frink's

A Pew Research Center survey released today suggests that tonight's presidential debate will be won by the candidate who most persuasively articulates sound plans for the economy.

Americans have retained their optimism, concluded the Oct. 9-12 Pew survey, but "are concerned about the nation's economic problems almost to the exclusion of every other issue."

The poll found not only a clear advantage for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama as "best able to deal with the problems of financial institutions," but also indicated that going negative tonight could be the end of Republican Sen. John McCain's presidential hopes, if negative campaigning has not already undone him.

Specifically, the report said:

Nearly half (48%) see McCain as too personally critical of Obama. By comparison, just 22% see Obama as too critical of McCain. Even among McCain's own voters, nearly one in five (19%) think he has been too critical of Obama.

The longer McCain's negative drumbeat continues, the more harm it does him, as the report indicated where it said:

Perceptions about the campaign McCain is running are starkly different from what they were in June, when just 26% said he had been too personally critical of Obama. In contrast, the percentage believing that Obama has been too negative is nearly unchanged since June.

Completed before either candidate's recent speeches on the economy could have an effect, the poll nonetheless holds out one possibility for McCain to prevent voter attitudes from jelling into a landslide vote for Obama.

The Pew Research Cener for the People & the Press [download the .pdf] found that neither candidate's economic plans have majority approval:

But neither candidate is seen by a majority as having laid out a clear plan for dealing with the situation. Voters are divided on whether Obama has done so: 48% say he has done an excellent or good job explaining what he would do, while 47% rate him as only fair or poor in doing so. But McCain fares worse. Just 29% say he has done an excellent or good job in explaining his ideas, while fully two-thirds (67%) say he has done only a fair or poor job in this respect.

McCain can help himself tonight by making a clear case for his own economic plans, which is persuasive to undecided voters

Like other polls, this one did find evidence that the undecideds are moving to Obama, and the percentage of voters unwilling to vote for McCain under any circumstances is growing.

Thus McCain has little hope of prevailing either tonight or in the general election, and no hope at all if he doesn't stick to the meat and potatoes issues about which voters care.