G. Frink's

Conservative Christian political leaders like Focus on the Family's James Dobson tried to explain it away, but the "God gap" that was twice important to Republican George W. Bush's victory, shifted toward Democrat Barack Obama.

That pronounced shift led the the Christian Science Monitor to say:

Some theologians suggest that the religious shift signals the emergence of a faith-based coalition that will counterbalance or, perhaps, replace the religious right. It's made up of mainline religious progressives, black and Hispanic Evangelicals, and a growing number of younger, white Evangelicals and Catholics.

A "whole new faith coalition is coming together and reaching out to allies in other faith traditions, both Jewish and Muslim," says Jim Wallis, a theologian on religion and public life. "The generational shift [among Evangelicals and Catholics] is very significant. Many young Christians cast a post-religious-right ballot."

The Pew Forum analysis of its own exit polls reached similar if somewhat more restrained conclusions in How the Faithful Voted:

While the Democrats gained support since 2004 among people of all levels of religious observance, the exit poll data also show that those who attend worship services regularly voted differently than those who attend worship services less often, as was the case in 2004. In 2008, 43% of weekly churchgoers voted for Obama, as did 67% of those who never attend worship services, for an "attendance gap" of 24 points. By comparison, 39% of weekly churchgoers voted for Kerry in 2004, compared with 62% of those who never attend religious services, for a similar attendance gap of 23 points.

Overall, these data suggest that Obama was successful at retaining - and even increasing - Democratic support among constituencies that typically support Democrats at very high rates (for example, those who rarely attend religious services and the religiously unaffiliated) while also making some inroads among groups that have tended in recent years to be more supportive of Republican candidates (for example, white evangelicals and those who attend worship services on a regular basis).

MSNBC concluded that Democrats won bigger share of religious vote while Nate Silver persuasively argued that it was all part of a larger trend in which Obama outperformed Kerry among virtually all demographic groups.

Thus conservative religious leaders' hand-wringing denial cannot conceal it. The "God gap" is no longer a solid rock upon which Republican candidates can stand.